Here’s a story from the other side of the desk. Emma is great, by the way. If you’re looking for a nonfiction agent, hit her up!
What are your thoughts after reading this?
These paragraphs stand out to me:
“I meet a lot of authors in a year, and many of them are convinced that signing with an agent is what they want most. The announcement on social media that you’re represented by an agency, replying to emails with the line “I’ve CC’d my agent,” adding your agent’s email to your author website – all fun, sexy accessories to the author life.
But slaving over a proposal and a manuscript that go nowhere wastes a lot of time, attention and emotional energy – things that are essential to living. The crushing disappointment of having a book “die on submission” has the potential to cost an author the joy of writing itself.”
I would add to Emma’s above paragraph that it costs an agent a lot of time, energy, and joy as well. I know because it’s happened to me. I’ve had a few books die on submission and those have been very hard lessons to learn. Those lessens have taught me more about the publishing industry, though.
Here are some statistics. Take these with a grain of salt, but it’s worth thinking about. Grab a strong cup of coffee and a comfort blanket before reading – lol!
Common Estimates from Industry Voices
Anecdotal and insider estimates from agents, former agents, authors, and publishing communities (e.g., Reddit’s r/PubTips, writing forums, and newsletters) generally place the failure rate for agented manuscripts on sub in the following range:
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Around 50% (a common “coin flip” or 40-60% guess for many unpublished/debut authors in recent years). Some agents and observers note it used to feel more like 20-30% in better market conditions, but tighter sales, fewer editors, and a glut of submissions have made it closer to 50/50 or worse in categories like YA or adult fiction.
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As high as 90-95% in more pessimistic takes. For example, former literary agent Mary Kole has been cited as estimating that only about 5% of agent-submitted manuscripts result in a book deal offer, implying ~95% die on sub. This aligns with some broader industry chatter about very low acquisition rates once a book reaches editors.
Other data points include:
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Jericho Writers and similar sources suggest that while an individual editor might acquire only ~1% of what they see, an agent’s targeted submissions (often to 8-12+ publishers/imprints) can push the overall success rate for their client books closer to 10% in some scenarios—still meaning ~90% don’t sell on that round.
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Community consensus often lands around one in three books getting acquired (roughly 67% die on sub), though this is described as rough and variable.
SAY WHAT???? Do you mean to tell me, Brandy, that not every author who I see on social media announcing that they signed with an agent … they actually don’t get a traditional book contract?
Yes, that’s the cold hard truth.
WOW, I know that’s hard to read. And honestly, if you focus on that, you might want to quit writing, but don’t!
— This is why a strong community is so important.
— This is why not taking the industry so seriously sometimes is so important.
— This is why knowing who you are is so important.
— This is why not letting publishing be the report card on you is so important.
— This is why setting a time limit on your traditional publishing dream might be a good idea.
— This is why pivoting to self publishing for some books might be a good idea.
— This is why valuing and celebrating every part of your journey (and not just the contract) is important.
— This is why making true writing friends for a lifetime is more valuable than any contract.
In many way, it might be time for a mindset shift. Knowing all your options helps. Knowing the cold hard reality (sometimes) helps. Set honest expectations and guard your joy. Try not to ever lose your love of writing. Try not to lose that important, beautiful part of who you are when you create.
I can also relate to this thought of Emma’s: “One by one, they failed to sell. Instead of being an elevator to the top, I was more like a human shield for the volley of rejection that landed on my clients.”
I have felt that, and it’s hard. It’s hard to receive those emails and then have to report the rejections to your client who you love. There have been tears. There have been rage walks…
BUT, with all this in mind, books are still getting published and that big traditional publishing contract dream still does come true for some.
No matter if you go on the traditional publishing path or the self-publishing one, building resilience is key. 🔑
I don’t want you guys to experience the heartbreak and discouragement that I (or others) have. I want your light, joy, and creativity to grow.
I want us all to just keep getting better and stronger. I want our skills to soar… I want you to see and know how important you are. I don’t just want us to just be good writers, I want us to be masterful storytellers. ✍🏻✍🏻✍🏻
These are some of the reasons why I started this group. ♥️
How would you react if your book died on submission after getting an agent? I have to admit, that’s something I never even considered back in my author only days. How will you protect your heart if that day does come?
As a side note, this is a good conversation to have with your future literary agent. Sometimes the agent and author decide to shelve the book for a time because of the market. And sometimes the author decides to shift to another book. Some agents only represent one book at a time and not the author’s entire career. So, just know what you’re getting into before you take that leap.
I’m cheering you on no matter where you’re at and no matter what you decide. Above all, I want you to keep writing and building your tribe. You’re worth it and your voice matters.
~Brandy